A family history.
An ongoing review.
Before the model, there was a family. Before the family agreed on the model, there was an incident.
Watch the family history
The Lichtman
Family History.
Nate and the people documenting him examine the lineage, the work, and the difficulties of keeping a family out of a family business.
Four centuries.
Eight profiles.
Bartholomew, Eli, Jacob, Solomon, Miriam, Nathan Gallup Sr., Rachel, and Nate Jr. Explore the dates, contributions, and doctrines of the Lichtman family.
Explore the interactive family history ↗Neutrality. Models.
Transparency. Inheritance.
Miriam’s Predictive Engine appeared in 1938. Rachel’s Transparency Policy followed Watergate. Solomon, Nate’s father, passed on a tradition of fieldwork under difficult conditions.
The family story is broader than a single forecaster.
The forecast.
The entry.
The family disagreement.
A single election occupies a disproportionate amount of space in the Lichtman archive.
01 · The disputed forecast
The forecast did not survive the election result. Nate’s confidence in the underlying methodology did.
02 · The data-entry explanation
Nate attributes the error to a data-entry glitch involving Nate Jr. In the Institute’s account, the model was sound; the handling of its inputs was a separate matter.
03 · The institutional position
The Institute has addressed this. Further questions may be referred to the family-history film, where the family continues addressing it.
Return to the testimony ↗The video library
NATE Talks, podcasts, lectures, field reports, and family films.
Browse all videos ↗FILM / 001The family history
The complete 2:17 film, with captions.
View film ↗CASE FILE / 1984An election under review
The Institute’s account of the forecast and the data entry.
Read the file ↗METHODOLOGY / 001The 20–80 range
The contemporary model and its approach to uncertainty.
Explore the model ↗